UBI → UBM

Recently, The Portly Politico wrote a short piece entitled “Fast Food Premium” about Universal Basic Income (UBI) and some of what is grossly wrong with this particular Leftist idea.

There’s been a lot of discussion of UBI—Universal Basic Income—over the last few years, especially with the presidential primary run of Andrew Yang.  The concept is seductive in its simplicity:  gut the welfare state and its behemoth apparatus of bureaucratic pencil pushers and middlemen, and just cut every adult citizen a monthly check.

For fiscal conservatives, it’s a particularly toothsome Devil’s Bargain:  streamline an inefficient and wasteful bureaucracy and simply direct deposit a grand every month into Americans’ checking accounts.  Of course, it’s a siren song:  we’d just get the payments and still suffer from an entrenched bureaucracy, claiming $1000 a month isn’t enough to meet the specialized needs of whatever community they pretend to support.

Even if the deal were struck and every redundant welfare program was eliminated, there UBI would still be a bad idea.  Besides the absurdity of merely paying people to exist, it’s inherently inflationary:  if you give everyone $1000 a month, prices are going to go up.  Just as college tuition has soared because universities realized they could jack up the price and federal loans would expand to cover the costs, UBI would cause a similar rise in prices.  Sure, it’d be great at first, but the inflationary effects would kick in quickly.

— The Portly Politico
Fast Food Premium

Rather than comment on his post directly, I’ve chosen to put my thoughts out here, both to boost the signal of his post and to avoid clogging up his post with TLDR commenting and bringing in tangential and barely tangential facts and predictions to his discussion.

My Thoughts On His Post and Premise

He right; UBI is prima facie very seductive to those who want to increase efficiency and decrease the size of the federal government’s payroll. He’s also right in his allusion to the fact that such an improvement is unlikely in the extreme to happen. The realities of the Deep State’s power, the issues involved in putting a significant number of federal workers onto the unemployment rolls, and many of the several States each likely deciding that they need more than the proposed $1000 per month per person, all indicate that there would be little, if any, streamlining of the federal bureaucracy.

I also agree that UBI would be inherently inflationary. Any time you inject “free” money into an economic system, inflation will be the result. This is especially true when it’s perceived as a stable, recurring injection of said money.

Finally, I agree that UBI would devastate the many industries that rely upon – and are to some extent relied upon by – the unskilled, lowest tier of workers inside our borders, e.g., the fast food industry that was his example.

I disagree, however, that this would be simply a Direct Deposit of monies into people’s bank accounts. Even today, most form of government “largess” are offered through debit cards managed by various third-party firms who make a great deal of money off of proving that service. There’s just too many of the same sorts who have issues with Voter IDs who “need” that sort of card vs. having a banking account of some sort.

UBI - You All Get "Free" Money, No Effort Needed
UBI – You All Get “Free” Money, No Effort Needed

My Thoughts On Near-Term UBI

My first thought is that this very much wouldn’t be a replacement program in the near term. UBI, along with “free” college, pay per baby birthed (I believe this will be expanded and made more direct than the current refundable tax credit), and other subsidies will simply be added to the billions of dollars the federal government hands out as subsidies to the “poor” every year. I firmly believe that, if UBI is enacted, it will be an addition, not a replacement, to the current subsidies collectively referred to a “Safety Net.”

No government ever voluntarily reduces itself in size. Government programs, once launched, never disappear. Actually, a government bureau is the nearest thing to eternal life we’ll ever see on this earth!

— President Ronald Reagan (Bl. 😉 )

No, my guess would be the only part of the “Safety Net” that might be removed (after a one-time, lump-sum payout) as redundant is Social Security (SSI), which is a largely worker-funded program that has been an issue for the government – as well as a cash cow – for some time now.

My second thought is that this, like minimum wage, unemployment, and a plethora of other nationwide programs, will actually increase the inefficiencies and sizes of state and local governments. After all, $1000 doesn’t go nearly as far in Manhattan, NY as it does in Gering, Ne. Hence, the more costly, Democrat-controlled states and localities will do whatever they can to get significantly (200% or more in some cases) increased UBI stipends.

Hellfire! That’s not even ridiculous or grafting. Just taking into account rent, there’s a huge difference. Apartments in Manhattan average costing 680% ($3670 vs. $540) of what they do in Gering. Other costs are similarly different. It would just make sense for NY politicians to demand more UBI money per resident, especially since UBI wouldn’t be means-tested in any way.

My third and final thought is that the proposed $1000 per month federal subsidy would only be the starting point. It would dramatically increase relatively quickly as increasing the monthly stipend would become a key campaign promise, especially for Democrat candidates.

Alaska’s Permanent Fund Dividend (PFD) – America’s only long term experiment with any form or level of UBI and Mike Dunleavy landslide victory in the 2018 Alaska gubernatorial election after he promised to increase the PFD payout by more than 600% of the then-current payout and over 300% of the original payout, rather proves that point.

My Longer-Term Predictions: UBI → UBM

In the longer-term, I predict that, if UBI is enacted upon America by the Democrats now or in the near future, it will over the course of some amount of time morph into Universal Basic Maintenance (UBM), with specific subsidies, services, and products replacing all or most of the cash payout. The negative synergy between the Republicans’ desire to not spend taxpayers’ money on frivolous or immoral things and the Democrats’ ideology of benevolent tyranny, pretty much guarantees this, as do all the politicians’ perfectly logical desires for increased control over the populace.

So, those UBI monies that bureaucrats think would or should be spent upon food will, at some point, be replaced by actual, preselected, “appropriate” foodstuffs either available for pickup at government or government-authorized locations or delivered to people’s homes.

Remember, President Trump already floated this idea as a change in SNAP, and the only real reason Democrats lambasted it was that President Trump was the one putting it forth.

Similarly, I’d expect some hybrid of government credit system in POS’s for durable goods, e.g., toilet paper and cleaning supplies and home deliveries of the same to replace that expected portion of the UBI cash payout.

Rent could and might well be handled similarly to how NYC’s rent control works, with the landlords receiving federal monies but being required by fiat to limit their rents to a pre-specified level – a portion of the future iteration of the UBM program that they may not be allowed to opt-out of in most cases.

And, of course, even if healthcare doesn’t get moved to a fully government-controlled single-payer model, that portion of each person’s UBI allotment would likely end up under UBM being placed directly by the government into that person’s Health Savings Account (HSA). Additionally, the government will probably at that point completely control how much medical professionals and institutions can charge for individual procedures and medications.

Yes, my predictions is that UBI will mutated into UBM, a para-utero to grave support and control system ran by the government, without the need for- or use of money by the residents of the nation for their basic needs as defined by our government.

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Kung Flu Fighting

Everybody Is Kung Flu Fighting

With the increasingly polarized and violent contention over “reopening” America – i.e., easing or removing the various “Lock Downs” – it’s quite apt to say that everyone in Kung Flu Fighting.

Because Would-Be Tyrants Have Gone Wild With Glee

Yeah, this pandemic has been a dream come for the various wannabe tin pot dictators that have been allowed into power across our nations. They’re loving the power it gives them, especially since they can claim that they’re just serving the greater good.

And no; I sincerely doubt that these paroxysms of tyranny are part of some deep plan or that they’re, for the most part, even consciously based in the desire for authoritarian power. No, this is the worse thing, the desire to “do what’s right” for the proles and others that need to managed, controlled, and protected from themselves for their own good and the good of their fellows.

That’s why both these tyrannical pseudo-parents and their ever-dutiful media have framed the lockdowns and other curtailments of liberty as something that must be done in order to protect others. It makes it so that anyone who doesn’t abide by these restrictions can be framed as a public enemy.

Thank You, Sir!

And, to make matters sadder and to increase the scope of the Kung Flu Fighting, there’s plenty within our borders – mostly but not entirely Democrats and Likely Democrats – who seem to be more than OK with these infringements upon the People’s liberty and basic rights.

But why are they OK with this? Honestly, I don’t know. There’s a host of possible reasons for it, both conscious and unconscious, ranging from derangement-based hatred of President Trump and everyone who supports him, through schadenfreude, and on to honest fear their lives and the lives of their loved ones. Judging which combination of those is behind anyone’s position is far beyond me.

And so the Kung Flu Fighting will continue and escalate.

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CNN Fights Trump

CNN Fights Trump's Low Unemployment Numbers By laying Off Workers
CNN Fights Trump Any Way They Can

Honestly, what makes this meme hilarious to me is that I can see CNN actually doing this and believing that they’re “doing their part” to help bring our President down.

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Signs Of Our Times

Signs Of Our Times

These are the signs of our times, especially these election times. The Republicans stand for jobs, whereas the Democrats stand for mobs. Hence, Americans have a simple but stark choice before them right now. We can take the first, best step in stopping the Left, or we can meekly surrending to cowardice and allow our domestic enemies a victory over our nation, our culture, and our people.

No not be fooled; do not be complacent; do not cleave to false hopes that you will not have to act. Our democracy and the very foundations of our nation are under existential threat right now, and all it will take for evil to win is for Americans to do nothing.

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The Choice Is Ours

Jobs Not Mobs, The Choice Is Ours To Make
The Choice Is Ours – Jobs Not Mobs

With the very important for the future of our nation 2018 Midterm Elections right around the corner, I believe that’s it’s imperative for each and every American to remember that the Choice Is Ours! We can vote for Republicans and jobs or we can allow the Democrats’ mobs to win over we, the People. It’s that simple and that dire.

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