Reflections From a Murky Pond

I’m not one to pay overly much attention to the various things that spew from the maw of Paul Krugman. The pontifications, ramblings, and rants of a rabidly fanatical Keynesian neo-Socialist who makes his rent working for the filthy rag known as the New York Times aren’t the sorts of things that I, or any other American, normally pay much heed to – except to keep an eye on what our nation’s enemies are thinking or emoting.

Krugman is willfully dead wrong more often than not on causation and dead wrong, again willfully, every time when it comes to remediation

All that being said, Krugman is not an idiot and he is skilled enough to make solidly plausible predictions of future events, especially relatively near-term ones.

Some of us have been talking it over, and here’s what we think the end game looks like:

1. Greek euro exit, very possibly next month.

2. Huge withdrawals from Spanish and Italian banks, as depositors try to move their money to Germany.

3a. Maybe, just possibly, de facto controls, with banks forbidden to transfer deposits out of country and limits on cash withdrawals.

3b. Alternatively, or maybe in tandem, huge draws on ECB credit to keep the banks from collapsing.

4a. Germany has a choice. Accept huge indirect public claims on Italy and Spain, plus a drastic revision of strategy basically, to give Spain in particular any hope you need both guarantees on its debt to hold borrowing costs down and a higher eurozone inflation target to make relative price adjustment possible; or:

4b. End of the euro.

And we’re talking about months, not years, for this to play out.

Of course this isn’t exactly rocket science or even one of the more arcane examples of the semi-mystical art form known today as the study of Economics. Both hyperinflation and the end of the Euro in the near future are easy predictions to make in the wake of Greece’s Keynesian meltdown and financial collapse.

NOTE: Krugman’s prediction of a European financial meltdown matches my own and naturally feeds into whatever level of Confirmation Bias that I’m saddled with.

Of course these events will happen and happen soon. They were foreordained from the moment of Greece’s financial implosion under the weight of their Socialist economic policies.

I’ll add though that these event will, in turn, most likely lead to the breaking of the European Union by 2015. They can’t hold together as a government – or meta-government, or whatever they are – without a common currency.

Tags: Debt | Depression | Economics | Economy | EU | Euro | Europe | Finance | Germany | Greece | Keynes | Keynesian Economics | Krugman | New York Times | Recession | Socialism | Spain

This entry was posted on Wednesday, May 16th, 2012 at 6:50 pm and is filed under Politics. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.

Every generation has the sad tendency to think its problem are new, novel, and unique. Each successive generation chooses to ignore Santayana’s wise words, “Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.”

This is especially true of America’s current economic problems and the resultant attempts by Obama and the Democrats to profit from them. It’s nothing new at all; America went through the same things in the Great Depression of the 1930s.

The various talking heads of the current generation of demand-driven, monitarian, and macroeconomic economist are all arguing the exact same causal factors now as their predecessors did in the early 1930s.

I propose to the American people a New New Deal

More importantly and dangerously, Obama and the Democrats along with the labor union syndicates they’re beholden to have been capitalizing upon Americans’ misfortune in very similar manners to how they did during the Great Depression.

The only functional difference between how the government and their backers and handlers have tried to capitalize off of today’s “Great Recession versus how they did so off of the Great Depression is that the syndicates of labor unions are now so entrenched in the government’s procurement process that Obama can’t engage in the pharaonic building projects that Franklin D. Roosevelt reveled in during the ’30s.

They just can’t recreate the Works Progress Administration (WPA).

This is important because FDR, his cronies, and his handlers managed through the political and financial profiteering to drag out the Depression for years and years until World War 2 finally forced the government to focus to change its policies. Obama’s, his cronies’, and his handlers’ political and financial profiteering will do the same thing – except that we don’t fight wars the same way anymore so getting into one won’t work as an economic fix this time.

This is nothing new. Our current situation and people’s reactions to it are little different from what has gone before. We need to learn from those past events and prevent this generation of bad actors from doing to us what their predecessor’s did to our ancestors.

~*~

H/T to YesterYear Once More for the 1930’s political cartoons. It’s an interesting site showcasing how American life was reported by journalists and writers several generations ago. YesterYear Once More has also been to Reflections From A Murky Pond’s blogroll.

Tags: America | Depression | Economics | Economy | Employment | Franklin Roosevelt | History | Jobs | Obama | Politics | Recession | Unemployment

This entry was posted on Sunday, March 11th, 2012 at 8:16 am and is filed under Politics. You can skip to the end and leave a response. Pinging is currently not allowed.