Whether Americans; our oikophobic domestic enemies, the Liberals, Progressives, and the minority tenants; or the world at large likes it or not, the decision as to how America responds, both openly and covertly, to the insurgency in Tunisia and Egypt is in the hands of President Obama. For better or worse, he will be the one to decide upon and set the tone for America’s foreign policy in this matter.
There are only two choices before him. He can choose to support and further America’s interests or he can choose to support and further the perceived interests of the popular insurrection in Egypt and Tunisia. He cannot do both because those two sets of interests are in direct conflict with each other.
America’s interests are for stability in the region, irrespective of how that stability is maintained. Unrest, turmoil, chaos, and anarchy in North Africa and the Middle-East will be the near- and mid-term effects of these insurgencies and are very much not in our nation’s interests, especially since Islamists will likely rise to power in the wake of these revolts.
The perceived interests of the rebels, such as we can discern with limited access, is overthrowing regimes that they find economically dysfunctional, oppressive, and too fond of America and the West.
That present Obama with a stark binary choice. He can have America back the current regimes in the region despite their flaws and maintain the stability that America requires or he can ave America back the popular revolts despite their strong anti-American sentiments, the chaos they will bring, and the probability that these nations will become even more Islamist in outlook.
Or Obama can choose not to choose in any meaningful way, as he did concerning the attempted Iranian revolution in the wake of Khameni’s and Ahmadinejad’s theft of Iran’s election in 2010.
Obama’s Likely Third Option – Not To Choose
Of course, just as in the case of the Green Revolution last year, that sort of non-response will only lead to all sides and our titular Western allies, distrusting and disliking America even more than they do now.
Sadly for America it is this non-choice that I expect Obama to make regarding the Tunisian and Egyptian revolts. It would show the aloofness, born of inexperience, inability, and insecurity, that Obama has become so swiftly become infamous for.