Reflections From a Murky Pond

The New Hampshire Primary is over and the press is proclaiming the results to the world at large. According to the media Clinton and McCain won their respective races. But is this actually the case? That depends on how you look at the primaries and caucuses.

The Democratic results from NH were: Clinton 110,550 (39%); Obama: 102,883 (36%); Edwards: 47,803 (17%); Richardson: 12,987 (5%); Kucinich: 3,845 (1%). This shows that Sen. Clinton barely edged out Sen. Obama, but did win the popular vote in the NH Primary. This is what the media is reporting about.

Let us look at the practical matter of the allotment of delegates, since it’s these delegates who will actually nominate the Democratic Party’s Presidential Candidate. It’s these men and women, plus 852 “superdelegates”, who will determine which candidate is nominated. Democratic primaries and caucuses award delegates on a proportional basis. Below is the break down of delegates for the 2008 NH Primary:

• Hillary Clinton won 9 New Hampshire delegates
• Barack Obama won 9 New Hampshire delegates
• John Edwards won 4 New Hampshire delegates

From the perspective of delegates the 2008 NH Democratic Primary was a tie between Sen. Hillary Clinton and Sen. Barack Obama.

On the Republican side of the 2008 Election race the results were more conclusive: McCain 86,802 (37%); Romney 73,806 (32%); Huckabee 26,035 (11%); Giuliani 20,054 (9%); Paul 17,831 (8%); Thompson 2,808 (1%). This shows McCain as a solid winner of the popular vote in the Republican primary.

Let us once again look at the practical matter of the allotment of delegates, since it’s these delegates who will actually nominate the Republican Party’s Presidential Candidate.

• John McCain won 7 New Hampshire delegates
• Mitt Romney won 4 New Hampshire delegates
• Mike Huckabee won 1 New Hampshire delegate

John McCain actually did win the 2008 NH Republican Primary in all practical ways.

10:00PM EST, January 8th, 2008 – with over 50% of the precincts having reported, the results are currently:

Democratic party with 59% reporting:

• Clinton 60,839 39%
• Obama 57,013 37%
• Edwards 25,845 17%
• Richardson 7,409 5%
• Kucinich 2,240 1%
• Dodd 388 0%
• Biden 343 0%
• Gravel 209 0%

Republican party with 57% reporting:

• McCain 46,600 37%
• Romney 39,501 31%
• Huckabee 14,242 11%
• Giuliani 10,926 9%
• Paul 9,917 8%
• Thompson 1,487 1%
• Hunter 645 1%

Frankly the result are still very much up in the air. The Obama v. Clinton battle is much closer than was to be expected, especially since none of the pundits expected an early lead by Hillary. The Romney v. McClain battle is shaping up to be far closer than the MSM would like us to believe.

The votes or endorsements of 2,025 out of a total of 4,049 primary delegates are required to secure the Democratic party nomination, as of January 4th, 2008, these delegates are currently allocated:

• Clinton 169
• Obama 66
• Edwards 47

The numbers above, counterintuitive as they are, are not in error. Due to something called superdelegates, who are not bound to vote based on the popular vote in each state, third place Clinton now has more than twice the number of delegates of the first place candidate Obama.

In point of fact, as of January 2, 2008 – even before the the Iowa Caucus – the delegate totals were:

• Clinton 77
• Obama 31
• Edwards 16

Enacted in the 1970s, after control of the nomination process in the Democratic Party effectively moved out of the hands of party officials into the primary and caucus process, 852 superdelegates were created to offer some measure of overriding control to the leaders and key players in the Democratic National Committee (DNC), and to standing Democratic politicians and their supporters. This means that 21% of the total 4,049 delegates are not elected into their position nor are bound to vote in accordance with the will of the American people!

Currently these 852 power brokers are:

• 482 DNC members
• 235 Democratic House members
• 49 Senators
• 2 District of Columbia’s shadow congresspeople
• 28 Governors
• 56 Other Democratic power brokers

As if having 21% of the delegates outside the purview of the voters wasn’t bad enough in and of itself, the very rules that govern the Democratic primaries and caucuses lend extra weight and power to the 852 unpledged delegates. Under the Democratic Party’s Delegate Selection Rules, delegates are awarded by proportional representation, with a minimum 15% threshold required in order to receive delegates.

This means that in a close or sharply contested popular race – as 2008 looks like it’s going to be – there is a greatly increased chance that these 852 superdelegates will be the ones actually mandating who will be the Democratic Nominee for President.

Attention! Let the election frenzy begin in earnest!

Image courtesy of ZardozZ News & Satire

On December 20th, 2007, Rep. Tom Tancredo (R-CO) announced that he was retiring from the 2008 Presidential Election Campaign. Representative Tom Tancredo ended his campaign, and in an unexpected move, endorsed Gov. Mitt Romney of Massachusetts’ bid for the Presidency in 2008.

I find this more than unexpected; I find it rather shocking. The two men’s respective platforms do not have that much in common.

Mr. Tancredo said that he had met with Mr. Romney and is confident of the Governor’s sincerity and commitment. Mr. Tancredo acknowledged that he and Mr. Romney differ on some aspects of their respective immigration policies, such as a “timeout.” Mr. Tancredo said that he and Mr. Romney agreed on securing the borders, penalizing “sanctuary cities” and prosecuting employers who knowingly employed illegal immigrants.

Somebody’s going to win this race.” It’s not going to me, so really what you’re looking for is that person you hope and pray will carry on.

— Rep. Tom Tancredo

Frankly, Tancredo was “one trick pony” – immigration reform. I’m not surprised he dropped out of the race. I don’t think Tancredo stood much of a chance against the more rounded candidates. Sadly, this means the US’ best shot at solving the immigration problem is gone – but I think that all Tancredo would have been good for.