Reflections From a Murky Pond

Tuesday, February 5, 2008 is Super Tuesday – the day when 24 states with over half the delegates to the national conventions hold their primaries. While the Republican race is interesting this time around, it’s the Democrats who are generating the most interest.

Here’s my hope – unfounded and immaterial as it is – for Super Tuesday:

Hehe – Snatch!

Wouldn’t it be great if Obama snatched “the crown” from Hillary? Will Hillary learn the hard way that she isn’t entitled to be the Nominee?

John Edwards suspended his campaign for the Democratic presidential nomination on Wednesday, January 29, 2008. Edwards suspended his campaign as opposed to terminating it. His campaign staff claims that Edwards’ decision to suspend the campaign rather than terminate it was nothing more than legal terminology so that he can continue to receive federal matching funds for his campaign donations.

Given the debts that all the candidates accrue during their campaigns, this is quite plausible – but so is another, darker reason. Edwards may well desire to play Kingmaker (or Queenmaker) in 2008.

When Edwards resigned from the race he told reporters that he would meet again with Clinton and Obama before deciding whether to make an endorsement. He set no timetable for deciding whether to endorse either candidate. Unlike Giuliani’s endorsement of McCain, Edwards’ suspended campaign makes his endorsement a potentially very powerful bargaining chip.

In suspending his campaign – instead of terminating it – Edwards gets to keep all 26 delegates he won in: Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. After he officially exits the race, 10 of those delegates will be dispersed to the other candidates, with Obama getting 6 and Clinton getting 4. Under Democratic National Party rules, Edwards will maintain a say in naming the other 16 delegates. Edwards had also collected endorsements from 30 of the 852 superdelegates.

If the Democratic race is too close, it could result in a Brokered Convention. Edward’s delegates would place him in a suddenly very powerful position within the DNP as whole and in regards to Hillary and Obama in particular.

Well, at least he has better hair than Cheney!

During the last week of January, 2008, America experienced a dramatic streamlining and parring down of the field of candidates for both the Republican and Democrat primary races. Both Republican Rudy Giuliani and Democrat John Edwards retired from their respective races.

Rudy Giuliani, who had bet most of his presidential campaign on a decisive Florida win, suffered a disappointing third-place finish in the state’s Republican primary Tuesday night.

Giuliani’s was the frontrunner in the crowded Republican field at first, but his strategy of focusing his attention on Florida while all but ignoring the other states’ Primaries left him unable to adapt to dynamic of the race.

When you run for president you spend a lot of time thinking about the qualities needed to be president Obviously, I thought I was that person. The voters made a different choice.

— Rudy Giuliani

Giuliani had Florida as the “gateway” to his presidential bid, but found that gateway locked. He is now backing Republican rival and longtime friend John McCain.

John Edwards, the former North Carolina senator, was in New Orleans, LA where he started his campaign, when he confirmed that he was abandoning his bid for the US Democratic presidential nomination. This was a shock to his supporters since Edwards vowed last week to stay in the race until Super Tuesday, when almost 50% of the states hold their Primaries.

Edwards finished a strong second in Iowa at the start of the campaign, but was quickly overshadowed and a distant third by Obama and Clinton.

It is time for me to step aside so that history can blaze its path.

— John Edwards

Edwards did not immediately endorse either Obama or Clinton for the Democratic nomination.

On Tuesday, January 22, 2008, Former Senator Fred Thomson signaled the end his run for the US presidency. Mr. Thompson resigned from the race after his disappointing third-place finish in South Carolina’s GOP primary. He finished with 16 percent of the vote, whereas McCain and Huckabee finished with 33% and 30% of the vote respectively.

Today I have withdrawn my candidacy for president of the United States. I hope that my country and my party have benefited from our having made this effort. Jeri and I will always be grateful for the encouragement and friendship of so many wonderful people.

— Fred Thompson

Thompson was elected to the U.S. Senate in 1994 and represented Tennessee for eight years. Thompson had hoped that South Carolina, the first Southern state contested in this election cycle would provide him with a strong showing that could have revitalized his stagnating campaign.

Fred Thompson is reported to be a long time friend of Sen. John McCain. It is completely conceivable to me that we’ll see Mr. Thompson becoming McCain’s running mate in the near future.

The Nevada Primary is over and the press is proclaiming the results to the world at large. According to the media Clinton and Romney won their respective races. But is this actually the case? As with the previous NH primary, that depends on how you look at the primaries and caucuses.

The Democratic results from NV were: Clinton 5,355 (50.7%); Obama 4,773 (45.2%); Edwards 396 (03.8%). This shows that Sen. Clinton edged out Sen. Obama by at 5.5% margin, but did win the popular vote in the NV Primary. This is what the media is reporting about – though, unlike the earlier NH Primary, they’re also reporting on delegate counts as well this time.

Let us though once again look at the practical matter of the allotment of delegates, since it’s these delegates who will actually nominate the Democratic Party’s Presidential Candidate. It’s these men and women, plus 852 “superdelegates”, who will determine which candidate is nominated. Democratic primaries and caucuses award delegates on a proportional basis. Below is the break down of delegates for the 2008 NV Primary:

• Hillary Clinton won 12 Nevada delegates
• Barack Obama won 13 Nevada delegates

From the perspective of delegates the 2008 NV Democratic Primary Sen. Barack Obama achieved victory by a margin of 1 NV delegate. This is because many delegates are decided at the district level and Obama won the more heavily populated southern districts in Nevada.

On the Republican side of the 2008 Election race the results were more conclusive: Romney 22,649 (51.1%); Paul 6,087 (13.7%); McCain 5,651 (12.7%); Huckabee 3,616 (8.2%): Thompson 3,521 (7.9%); Giuliani 1,910 (4.3%). This shows Romney as a solid winner of the popular vote in the Republican primary.

As with the Democrats, let us once again look at the practical matter of the allotment of delegates, since it’s these delegates who will actually nominate the Republican Party’s Presidential Candidate.

• Mitt Romney won 17 Nevada delegates
• Ron Paul won 4 Nevada delegates
• John McCain won 4 Nevada delegates
• Mike Huckabee won 3 Nevada delegates
• Fred D. Thompson won 2 Nevada delegates
• Rudolph Giuliani won 1 Nevada delegates

Mitt Romney actually did score a very decisive win the 2008 NV Republican Primary in all practical ways, both by popular support and by delegate allotment.